Isivumelwano se-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), okuyisivumelwano sohwebo samahhala esikhulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, siqale ukusebenza ngosuku lokuqala luka-2022. I-RCEP ihlanganisa amalungu angu-10 e-ASEAN, i-China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia kanye ne-New Zealand.Izifunda ezingu-15 'inani labantu, isamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya kanye nohwebo konke kuhlanganisa cishe amaphesenti angama-30 engqikithi yomhlaba.Ngemuva kokuthi i-RCEP iqale ukusebenza, amazwe angamalungu angajabulela amanani akhethekile lapho ethumela izimpahla ngaphandle.Ingabe izoletha izinguquko ezintsha?
Inkambo nokuqukethwe kwezingxoxo ze-RCEP
I-RCEP yaphasiswa ngokwethulwa okokuqala eNgqungqutheleni yama-21 ye-ASEAN ngo-2012. Inhloso ukusungula isivumelwano sohwebo lwamahhala nemakethe ebumbene ngokunciphisa amanani entengo kanye nemigoqo engakhokhisi.Izingxoxo ze-RCEP zibandakanya ukuhwebelana ngezimpahla, ukuhweba ngezinsizakalo, ukutshalwa kwezimali nemithetho, futhi amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP anamazinga ahlukene okuthuthukiswa komnotho, ngakho ahlangabezana nazo zonke izinhlobo zobunzima ezingxoxweni.
Amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP anenani labantu eliyizigidigidi ezingu-2.37, okubalelwa ku-30.9% yenani labantu, okubalelwa ku-29.9% we-GDP yomhlaba.Kusukela esimeni somhlaba jikelele sokuthengwa kwempahla kanye nokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kubalelwa ku-39.7% wempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle kanye nempahla ephuma ngaphandle yenza ama-25.6%.Inani lohwebo phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu e-RCEP licishe libe ngama-10.4 trillion USD, okubalelwa ku-27.4% womhlaba jikelele.Kungatholakala ukuthi amazwe angamalungu e-RCEP agxile kakhulu ekuthekeni, futhi ingxenye yokungenisa ezweni iphansi kakhulu.Phakathi kwamazwe ayi-15, i-China yenza ingxenye enkulu kakhulu yezinto ezithengwayo nezithunyelwa ngaphandle emhlabeni, ibalwa ku-10.7% wezinto ezithengwayo kanye nama-24% okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2019, kulandele u-3.7% wezinto ezithengwayo nezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwase-Japan, u-2.6% wempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle kanye ne-South Korea. 2.8% wezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.Amazwe ayishumi e-ASEAN enza u-7.5% wempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle kanye no-7.2% wempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle.
I-India ihoxile esivumelwaneni se-RCEP, kodwa uma i-India ijoyina ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, amandla okusebenzisa isivumelwano azothuthukiswa.
Umthelela weSivumelwano se-RCEP kwendwangu nezingubo
Kunomehluko omkhulu kwezomnotho phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu, iningi lawo kungamazwe asathuthuka, kanti yiJapan, New Zealand, Australia, Singapore kanye neSouth Korea kuphela amazwe athuthukile.Umehluko wezomnotho phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu e-RCEP nawo wenza ukushintshana kwezimpahla kuhluke.Ake sigxile esimweni sendwangu nesembatho.
Ngo-2019, ukuthunyelwa kwendwangu nezingubo zamazwe angamalungu e-RCEP bekungama-USD ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-374.6, okubalelwa ku-46.9% womhlaba, kanti ukungenisa kwamanye amazwe bekungama-USD ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-138.5, okubalelwa ku-15.9% womhlaba.Ngakho-ke kungabonakala ukuthi izindwangu nezingubo zamazwe angamalungu e-RCEP zigxile kakhulu ekuthekeni.Njengoba uchungechunge lwezimboni zendwangu nezingubo zamazwe angamalungu lwalungaqiniseki, ukukhiqizwa nokudayiswa kwezindwangu nezingubo nakho kwakuhlukile, lapho iVietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Indonesia kanye nezinye izifunda zase-ASEAN kwakungabathengisi abaningi ngaphandle, kanjalo neChina.ISingapore, iBrunei, iPhilippines, iJapan, iSouth Korea, i-Australia kanye ne-New Zealand bekungabathengisi bangaphandle.Ngemuva kokuthi i-RCEP iqale ukusebenza, amanani entengo phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu azoncishiswa kakhulu futhi izindleko zokuhweba zizokwehla, khona-ke amabhizinisi endawo ngeke abhekane nokuncintisana kwasekhaya kuphela, kodwa futhi nokuncintisana kwemikhiqizo yangaphandle kuzoba sobala kakhulu, ikakhulukazi imakethe yaseShayina ingumkhiqizi omkhulu futhi omkhulu. ongenisa impahla kwamanye amazwe phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu, futhi izindleko zokukhiqizwa kwezindwangu nezingubo eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nakwezinye izifunda ngokusobala ziphansi kunalezo zaseShayina, ngakho eminye imikhiqizo izothintwa amabhrendi aphesheya kwezilwandle.
Ngokombono wokungenisa nokuthekelisa kwempahla yendwangu kanye nempahla emazweni angamalungu amakhulu, ngaphandle kweNew Zealand, iSouth Korea neJapan, amanye amazwe angamalungu athumela impahla ngaphandle, kulekelelwa ngezindwangu, kuyilapho ukwakheka kokungenisa kwamanye amazwe kusezingeni eliphezulu. ngokuphambene.I-Cambodia, iMyanmar, iVietnam, iLaos, i-Indonesia, iPhilippines, iThailand, iChina neMalaysia ingenisa kakhulu izindwangu.Kulokhu, singabona ukuthi umthamo wokucubungula izingubo zabasebenzisi bokugcina endaweni ye-ASEAN ubunamandla, futhi ukuncintisana kwawo kwamanye amazwe bekulokhu kukhuphuka eminyakeni yamuva nje, kodwa uchungechunge lwezimboni ezikhuphuka nomfula belingaphelele futhi luntula ukunikezwa kwalo kwempahla kanye nengxenye. -imikhiqizo eqediwe.Ngakho-ke, inhla nomfula incike kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe, kanti izifunda ezithuthukile ezifana ne-Japan neNingizimu Korea zazingenisa kakhulu izindwangu nezingubo, okwakuyizindawo eziyinhloko zokusetshenziswa.Yiqiniso, phakathi kwalawa mazwe angamalungu, i-China yayingeyona nje indawo eyinhloko yokukhiqiza kodwa futhi indawo eyinhloko yokusetshenziswa, futhi uchungechunge lwezimboni lwaluphelele, ngakho-ke kukhona kokubili amathuba nezinselele ngemva kokunciphisa intela.
Uma sibheka okuqukethwe yisivumelwano se-RCEP, Ngemva kokusebenza kwesivumelwano se-RCEP, kungasiza ukwehlisa amanani entengo futhi kugcwalise ukuzibophezela ekuvuleni ukutshalwa kwezimali ezinsizeni, futhi ngaphezu kuka-90% wokuhwebelana kwezimpahla esifundeni kuzogcina kufinyelele i-zero tariff. .Ngemuva kokwehliswa kwezintela, izindleko zohwebo phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu ziyehla, ngakho ukuncintisana kwamazwe angamalungu e-RCEP kuba ngcono kakhulu, ngakho-ke kulungele ukukhula kokusetshenziswa, kuyilapho ukuncintisana kwezindwangu nezingubo ezivela ezisekelweni ezinkulu zokukhiqiza ezifana ne-India. , Bangladesh, Turkey kanye nezinye izisekelo ezinkulu zokukhiqiza zehlile ku-RCEP.Ngaso leso sikhathi, amazwe angumthombo oyinhloko wokuthengwa kwendwangu nezingubo ezivela e-EU nase-US yiShayina, i-ASEAN kanye nezinye izisekelo ezinkulu zokukhiqiza izindwangu nezingubo.Ngaphansi kwezimo ezifanayo, amathuba ezimpahla ezijikelezayo phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu ayakhula, okuyinto ecishe ifake ingcindezi ku-EU nase-US nakwezinye izimakethe.Ngaphezu kwalokho, imigoqo yokutshalwa kwezimali phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu e-RCEP iwile, futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali phesheya kwezilwandle kulindeleke ukuthi kukhule.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-10-2022