Ingxabano eshubile phakathi kwe-Russia-Ukraine idale umonakalo omkhulu ezimakethe zomhlaba.Amazwe amaningana ayandisa unswinyo olubhekiswe eRussia emkhakheni wezezimali futhi unswinyo lungafinyelela emkhakheni wezamandla.Ngenxa yalokho, amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe negesi yemvelo akhuphuka muva nje.NgoMashi 3, ikusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent likhuphukela ku-$116/bbl, ukuphakama okusha kusukela ngo-Sep 2013;kanye nekusasa elingahluziwe le-WTI lithuthukela ku-$113/bbl, ishumi leminyaka eliqabulayo eliphezulu.Intengo yegesi yemvelo yase-Europe yenyuke ngo-60% ngoMashi 2, yafinyelela irekhodi eliphezulu.
Kusukela ngo-2021, intengo yegesi yemvelo yase-Europe ibilokhu ikhuphuka kakhulu, ikhuphuka isuka ku-19.58 EUR/MWh ekuqaleni konyaka yaya ku-180.68 EUR/MWh kusukela ngomhla ka-Dis 21, 2021.
Intengo ikhushulwe ukushoda kwempahla.I-90% yegesi yemvelo etholakala eYurophu incike ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe, futhi iRussia ingumsuka omkhulukazi ohlinzeka ngegesi yemvelo eYurophu.Ngo-2020, i-EU yangenisa cishe i-152.65 billion m3 yegesi yemvelo evela eRussia, i-38% yenani eliphelele lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe;futhi igesi yemvelo evela eRussia yabalelwa cishe ku-30% wesamba esisetshenzisiwe.
Ngokudlondlobala kwezingxabano phakathi kwe-Russia-Ukraine, iJalimane ngesonto eledlule yamisa ukugunyazwa kwepayipi legesi yemvelo le-Nord Stream 2.Umongameli wase-US uBiden uphinde wamemezela unswinyo ngokumelene nephrojekthi yepayipi le-Nord Stream 2.Ngaphezu kwalokho, elinye ipayipi e-Ukraine lonakele kusukela kungqubuzana.Ngenxa yalokho, ukukhathazeka mayelana nokunikezwa kwegesi yemvelo kuye kwanda, okuholela ekukhuphukeni okukhulu kwentengo.
Izitshalo ze-Methanol ngaphandle kwe-China zonke zisekelwe kugesi yemvelo njenge-feedstock.Kusukela ngo-Jun 2021, ezinye izitshalo ze-methanol eJalimane nase-Netherlands zimemezele ukumisa ukukhiqiza njengoba intengo yemvelo ibiphezulu kakhulu esiphinde yaphindaphindeka izikhathi ezimbalwa ukusuka ezingeni langonyaka odlule.
Izitshalo ze-Methanol eYurophu
| Umdidiyeli | Amandla (kt/unyaka) | Isimo sokusebenza |
| I-Bioethanol (Netherlands) | 1000 | Vala maphakathi noJuni 2021 |
| I-BioMCN (Netherlands) | 780 | Ukugijima ngokuzinzile |
| I-Statoil/Equinor (Norway) | 900 | Isebenza ngokuzinzile, uhlelo lokulungisa ngoMeyi-Juni |
| I-BP (Germany) | 285 | Vala ngasekupheleni kukaJan 2022 ngenxa yenkinga yezobuchwepheshe |
| U-Mider Helm (Germany) | 660 | Ukugijima ngokuzinzile |
| I-Shell (Germany) | 400 | Ukugijima ngokuzinzile |
| I-BASF (Germany) | 330 | Vala ekuqaleni kukaJuni 2021 |
| Ingqikithi | 4355 |
Njengamanje, umthamo we-methanol ufinyelela kumathani ayizigidi ezi-4.355/ngonyaka e-Europe, okubalelwa ku-2.7% wengqikithi yomhlaba wonke.Isidingo se-methanol sifinyelele cishe kumathani ayizigidi eziyisi-9 e-Europe ngo-2021 futhi ngaphezu kwama-50% we-methanol athembele ekuthengisweni kwamanye amazwe.Imisuka eyinhloko efaka isandla e-methanol eYurophu kwakuyiMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNyakatho Melika naseRussia (ibalwa ku-18% we-methanol yase-Europe ethengwayo).
Ukukhishwa kwe-methanol eRussia kwafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezi-3 ngonyaka, amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.5 awo athunyelwa eYurophu.Uma ukuhlinzekwa kwe-methanol evela eRussia kumisiwe, imakethe yaseYurophu ingase ibhekane nokulahlekelwa kokuhlinzekwa kwe-120-130kt ngenyanga.Futhi uma ukukhiqizwa kwe-methanol eRussia kuphazamiseka, ukunikezwa kwe-methanol emhlabeni jikelele kuzothinteka.
Muva nje, njengoba unswinyo olubekiwe, ukuhweba nge-methanol e-Europe sekuqalile ukusebenza njengoba intengo ye-methanol ye-FOB Rotterdam ikhula kakhulu, ikhuphuke ngo-12% ngoMashi 2.
Njengoba ukungqubuzana kungenakwenzeka ukuba kuxazululwe esikhathini esifushane, imakethe yaseYurophu ingaba ngaphansi kobunzima bokushoda kwegesi yemvelo esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside.Izitshalo ze-Methanol eYurophu zingathintwa ukufinyeleleka ngokukhuphuka kwentengo yegesi yemvelo.Intengo ye-methanol ye-FOB Rotterdam kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokukhuphuka, futhi imithwalo eyengeziwe ingase igeleze isuka eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNyakatho Melika iye e-Europe uma ukungezwani kubhebhetheka.Ngenxa yalokho, imithwalo ye-methanol yemvelaphi engeyona eye-Iran eya e-China izokwehla.Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba i-arbitrage ivuliwe, ukuthunyelwa kabusha kwe-methanol kwe-China eYurophu kungakhula.Ukunikezwa kwe-methanol eChina kulindeleke ukuthi kube kuningi, kepha isimo singashintsha.
Kodwa-ke, njengoba intengo ye-methanol ikhuphuka, izitshalo ze-MTO ezingezansi zihlupheka ngenxa yokulahlekelwa okukhulu eChina.Ngakho-ke, isidingo se-methanol singaba nomthelela futhi izinzuzo zentengo ye-methanol zingafinyelelwa.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-17-2022